latest posts
Future Forecast – The Economy
July 20th, 2008
The economy has clearly become the primary subject today in America. It has become so not only because of all the issues discussed in the prior column, but also because it has also become the number one issue for voters in this significant election year.
In the “Forecast for 2008” column on January 9th of this year I wrote:
“The U.S. Economy will not go into a recession as it has been traditionally defined. There will be a bumpy ride, particularly in the first six months of the year. The traditional conversation will be an either/or discussion: will there be a recession …
Keep on Trucking – Not!
June 23rd, 2008
This will be the first of several columns on the state of transportation in the U.S. Regular readers of this column know that for years I have predicted the current high price of oil, the sales collapse of the truck and SUV markets and the need for electric cars. In addition it has been stated here that the future of U.S. transportation must include high speed trains, and a better integration of airplane, train and local mass transit. Finally it should start being clear to anyone paying attention [still too few of the population] that the now permanent high …
Shift Age Valuation
April 13th, 2008
Regular readers know that I have often written about Intellectual Property in this space. IP is increasingly important in the valuation of all enterprises. I provided a historical context to this trend here, and later talked about Ocean Tomo, one of the companies that is helping to create the IP marketplace.
As mentioned in one of the earlier columns, the percentage of the aggregate value of the S&P 500 companies that is IP has gone from 17% in 1975 to 80% in 2005. The transactional process of IP, until very recently, has largely been the same …
Future of Energy – $100 a Barrel Oil is the New Normal
February 20th, 2008
Regular readers of this column know that I have long predicted that oil would reach and then exceed the $100 price barrier. In fact, when this barrier was first breached the first few days of January, readers congratulated me on the veracity of my prediction. Yesterday was the first time that a barrel of oil actually closed over $100. This drove the stock market down, made economic prognosticators nervous and created headlines across the country.
Six months ago I predicted that the trading range for a barrel of oil will be $80 — 125 for the foreseeable …