latest posts
In the last column here, I pointed out that a number of my Shift Age forecasts have come true. I wrote about several of them and how I get an odd sense of déjà vu when these forecasts become reality. In this and coming columns, I will revisit them – not to gloat, but to provide explanation, because people read and hear forecasts differently from explanations of the actual events they become.
In 2007, I forecast that humanity, and particularly the developed countries of the world, would enter the “reorganizational recession of 2007-2010.” Considering that this is a blog that looks …
Shift Age Forecasts
February 25th, 2011
In the past I have written that as a futurist, it sometimes feels like I live in a state of déjà vu. I spend a lot of time researching and looking into the future to develop the forecasts and trends that I write and speak about. I experience them, see them, and have varying degrees of certainty when I publish or present them.
Since 2011 began, so many of the forecasts and trends I predicted over the last four years are coming true, I feel as if I’m in an almost constant state of déjà vu. Now, as I spend some …
01/01/10-10/10/10-11/10/10-11/11/10 01/01/11-10/10/11- 11/10/11 – 11/11/11
October 12th, 2010
In the Industrial Age we lived with an economy based upon atoms. In the Information Age we created an economy based upon bits. The zeros and ones in the title of this column of course represent the digits upon which the Information Age is based.
On 01/01/10 I wrote a column naming the decade 2010-2020 the Transformation Decade, explaining the term and what will come to pass in this decade. As regular readers know I believe we have left the Information Age and entered the Shift Age, hence the title of my book “The Shift Age”. Since January first …
Revisiting a Forecast About the Future of Cable Television
September 1st, 2010
Last November, I wrote a column here about the future of cable television. In that column from last November I forecast:
“Cable television subscriptions will experience noticeable percentage declines in the next three to five years.”
Last week it was announced that for the first time in history paid television subscriptions dropped 216,000 with cable taking the greatest hit.
The conventional wisdom of course is that this is due to the bad economic conditions of today. Of course that is a factor, but the times have been bad for the past two years. The new dynamic is what I touched upon …