Regular readers know that I have long predicted the current price of oil and that we are now moving through Peak Oil These subjects were included in my “Forecast for 2008″

To quote from that January 9, 2008 column:

“In 2008, gas will, for a period of time reach $4 on the national level. A year ago I predicted that oil would rise above $80. Three months ago I predicted that the price would rise to $100 and that the trading range for oil will be $80 – 125 a barrel for the next year…but there could be several …

As a futurist, I think, speak, and write about the future. A large part of what I do is to make forecasts on the future and what might happen. This forecasting is based upon analysis of trends and the underlying forces and flows that create and shape these trends. The more specific the forecast or the further out the forecast, the higher probability of error in the forecast. When I look 5, 10 or 20 years out I look at the macro forces at play in the world to predict the overarching changes and reorganizations that …

Well, it finally has happened. The price of gasoline has increased enough to cause pain to Americans so that they are changing behavior. The approach of $4 a gallon gasoline has, in the last month produced two positive results. First, after gasoline consumption increased 1.4% in March over the same month last year, it declined 0.6% in April. Second, ridership is up on mass transit systems around the country, in some cases by double digit amounts. The Minneapolis-St.Paul light rail line has increased ridership of 16% year to date over last year, and the Miami rail ridership is up 13% …

Regular readers of this column know that I have long predicted that oil would reach and then exceed the $100 price barrier. In fact, when this barrier was first breached the first few days of January, readers congratulated me on the veracity of my prediction. Yesterday was the first time that a barrel of oil actually closed over $100. This drove the stock market down, made economic prognosticators nervous and created headlines across the country.

Six months ago I predicted that the trading range for a barrel of oil will be $80 — 125 for the foreseeable …