Part of the Job Description of a Futurist
May 14th, 2006
The “Remember When Gas Was Cheap?” post on 4/20/06 provoked a lot of response. That post looked back at the rise of gas prices, written from the future perch of 4/20/09.
In that futuristic look back to see how gas went from $3.00 in April, 2006 to the $7.33 price in April, 2009, I wrote of events and consequences during that three year time period. One such event ‘ocurred’ in October 2007, when, with the price of gas at $4.45, GM announced that it was shutting down the Hummer division because of a drastic fall-off in sales and the refusal of Hummer dealers to take delivery on additional vehicles since the all had such a large backlog of the gas guzzlers.
Yesterday, May 13, 2006, it was reported that GM said it would stop building the H1, the first and largest Hummer model. 12,000 H1’s have been sold to the public in 14 years, but only 98 so far this year.
Now, my prediction that the entire division would be shut down did not come to pass, but then again it is May 2006. Let’s see where Hummer is in October 2007. Straining my elbow here for some back slapping acknowledgement, I will take credit for being directionally correct in my prediction. it reminds me of the “Odd Week for a Futurist’ post when I spoke about the fact that when the “Remember” post was made and I predicted that gas would be at $3.60 by July 4, 2006 I was immediately challenged by friends who told me I was nuts, only to find just one week later that gas had gone up to $3.60 in some parts of the country in just that short week.
A futurist adds value by suggesting trends, direction and dynamics for the future that prove to be correct; it is part of the job description. My hope is that by doing my job well, I help you do your job and live your life in a better way. If you think that is the case, then please tell others about www.evolutionshift.com. New readers are always welcome. Thank you!
May 14th, 2006 at 5:34 pm
You were right! It is, at least, a start with GM ending the H1.
I have to say as someone who would like to leave something of this earth to her child, I can only hope that the rest of your “prediction” is true and the Hummer Line is shut down, completely, by when you predicted, (October, 2007). Maybe we will all get really lucky and the next to go will be the huge SUV’s with only one or two people driving them!
May 17th, 2006 at 7:07 am
Tell me this. What happens when the gas runs out? What happens to companies like FedEx, and the airline industry? Not to mention therest of the world that relies on dinosaur bones.
Are we inching towards a post apocalyptic world (a la Blade Runner or The Terminator). Specific to this posting, as a marketer I wonder daily what company is going to position itself as the “green” or alternative fuel auto maker. The market is primed and ready. The category is open in the minds of consumers. Will it be Toyota? Ford? I doubt it.
The future scares me.
May 17th, 2006 at 9:23 am
Dave-
These are issues that I a wrestling with in the book I a writing. I believe that humanity is approaching a choicepoint and that the choice we make will determine the upward path of ongoing evolution or the path of downward devolution. Estimated book publication date: 2007
Oil is supposed to run out betwen 2035 and 2100. I think the 2035 is closer to the mark. That means that the price will continue to escalate between now and then resulting is relative economic benefit for alternative and renewable sources of energy, which will drive new ways for transport to be powered.
As for the ‘green’ marketing opportunity, you are dead on. I think that when companies stop the tokenism and combine two things they will be successful. First, provide products -particularly in the transportation area – that will cost the consumer less to operate or use. Second relate the product to actual benefits to the environment short term and to the quality of life of our children and grandchildren long term. Create savings short term and provide vision long term. Until then study the Mad Max movies for a possible view of the worst case scenario
David
June 7th, 2006 at 2:07 am
I agree with comment above but its time for football..