Some Disturbing Thoughts About 2012
September 19th, 2011
In the last three years, I have spoken about how 2012 might well be one of the most change-filled, disruptive years in America in recent memory. It is a quadrennial election year. It is the year of the Mayan Prophecy. It figures to be a year of political conflict between those who want to hold onto the legacy structures and ways of thinking of the 20th century and those who realize that the 21st century is a time for new forms and ways of thought. I had, until recently, felt that, while disruptive, 2012 would be about transformation and new beginnings. The metaphor that comes to mind is birth: a process that is quite painful, but ultimately, produces a new, vibrant life.
In recent weeks, I sense that 2012 could well be a dangerous and strife-torn year in the United States. A year when the fabric of our society will, to some degree, be severely tested. Here are some recent facts that are disturbing:
– The wealth disparity in the U.S. is at a historic high. The last time the concentration of wealth in the upper one percent of the country was as high as it is now was 1929.
– The number of people living below the poverty level is the highest it has been in 52 years. 2.6 million people slipped into poverty in the last year alone.
– Median incomes fell last year to levels last seen in 1997, a span of 14 years. The last time this happened in the U.S. was the Great Depression.
– The unemployment rate is 9.1%. My forecast is that even with some kind of jobs bill being signed into law, the rate will be 8-8.5% on election day in November 2012.
– There is a national feeling that our political leaders are not leading and are not looking out for the best interests of the citizens. Respect for Congress is at a historic low. The president’s approval ratings are plummeting. People clearly feel that their political leaders don’t care about them or the country and are not showing the quality of leadership.
– 80% of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction.
– An estimated 33% of home owners are “under water” in their mortgages, which leads to a lack of mobility and a sense of loss of economic well-being.
These facts and trends don’t paint a picture of a happy citizenry or a general sense of well-being and purpose. In fact, the opposite is being created: a sense of despair, frustration and at the growing lower levels of society, hopelessness. The middle class has, over the last two decades, and certainly since 2007, been eviscerated. History has clearly shown – and economists and historians have always pointed out – that the creation and growth of a middle class is one of the key factors in an economically stable democracy. That is why all of the above facts and statements are so troubling when one looks toward 2012. I think there will be demonstrations in the streets by the growing number of economically disenfranchised Americans who increasingly feel their options being diminished.
Being a baby boomer, the year 1968 comes to mind. As an American, it was arguably the most disruptive and significant year of my lifetime. It was not about the decline of the middle class, but there were significant other developments that threatened the country. There were two horrible assassinations that arguably altered the course of the country. A major clash of cultures was developing, creating the phrase “generation gap.” There were demonstrations in the streets of most American cities, as a rapidly growing percentage of citizens protested a war they perceived to be wrong. The sitting president of the United States was defeated in an early primary because of that war, and he decided to not run for a second term. There were riots – many people correctly called them police riots – going on outside the Democratic convention. There was a distinct and deep division in America as to the direction the country should take. Entire ways of life, social constructs and mores were being challenged and altered. It was a heady year, and a depressing year.
The country obviously survived 1968, but the trajectory of the nation changed. Certain ascendant hopeful views were dashed, and a gritty, grimmer reality replaced it. America stumbled forward, a bull market ended, and peopled turned inward. The Industrial Age began to cede to the Information Age, which ultimately brought about a resurgent country.
It is now a different century, and the Information Age has ceded to the Shift Age, the global stage of human evolution. The world is ever more electronically connected. There is no turning back from the global economy. What was – the way things used to be – is coming up against what is and what might be. Clearly, it is a significant moment and a transitional time in America.
The American Dream is a powerful vision. This aspirational vision is currently and in 2012 will be strongly tested.
September 19th, 2011 at 9:25 pm
David:
One of your best pieces of writing ever. When you previously wrote bout 2012, I thought that you were being too optimistic. As you wrote, 2012 will be a very challenging year.
September 20th, 2011 at 6:39 am
There is a nearly inexhaustible supply of statistics and news to deliver the message that America is on the wrong track. That accumulation of negative information is compounded by partisan craziness, especially from the radical right, that prevents progress and that exacerbates our societal problems.
I came across a pair of statistics last week that provide the clearest indication of the future of this country if nothing changes. Here is the first: America is the only country among the G-20 nations whose new workers have less education than its retiring workers.
The second piece of information was released by the College Board last week (week of September 12). The SAT reading scores from this year’s graduating high school seniors was the lowest they have ever recorded.
Every business leader knows that they must continuously reinvest if they are to succeed in the future. It’s that way for nations, too. America is either green and growing or it is ripe and rotting.
The juggernaut that is American culture and the might and bulk of the American economy can take us only so far. We will have to reinvest in this nation with the things that have consistently produced the results we have enjoyed for so long or the disruption you predict for 2012 will lead us in an ever tighter downward spiral. And the reinvesting has to begin with the education of our future citizens. Otherwise, America will become something much less than it has been and could be.
September 20th, 2011 at 6:48 pm
I believe everyone will agree that our educational system needs to be improved. The sharp divide is with how to go about it.
As I write this, there are a few hundred thousand manufacturing jobs yet to be filled in the US. Amazing in a time of high unemployment. And these manufacturers have taken it upon themselves to train their new workers since they lack the necessary skills to start with.
Our current system of public education simply is not meeting our needs.
September 21st, 2011 at 7:12 pm
As always, David, some very interesting stuff from a great futurist. I have two principal takeaways, jobs and the middle class. A necessary, although not a sufficient, answer to both jobs and the middle class is to redefine our trade strategy. Republican and Democratic politicians have all lauded free trade for years. But here is the reality. A finished product from a Chinese company, designed, manufactured and shipped, costs less money than their American counterpart company pays in raw materials. Stop. Read that again. And think about it. The Chinese government subsidizes Chinese companies. The U.S. government, both Republican and Democrat, punishes American companies. That one fact speaks to trillions of dollars in potential revenue and millions of potential jobs. The future of the American middle class is synonymous, in great measure, with the future of American manufacturing.
September 21st, 2011 at 9:45 pm
Jonathan, thanks!
Jack – very good point. That is why I wrote the book on transforming K-12 education.
Ed- Yes, our school system graduates our kids from high school with barely enough information to get an entry level job, the rest is up to them
Larry- Thank you for you comment. That says it in a nutshell. Manufacturing is our largest export, but it won’t be much longer if this reality continues.
September 22nd, 2011 at 2:51 pm
I don’t know why you say there’s no turning back from the global economy. Peak Oil virtually guarantees it.
September 25th, 2011 at 3:01 pm
As we move toward 2012, the overriding fears are almost overwhelmingly economic. The middle-class certainly is struggling. Manufacturing and technical jobs have been outsourced overseas. I’m not sure that those unemployed millions have a central focus to take to the streets as a youth of 1968 did. I do think that the divisiveness that were seen in the political discourse is an indicator of tremendous unrest. Personal Attacks and Outrage Talk seem to be monopolizing the political dialogue. Real issues are often hidden in the confrontational dialogue. You’re absolutely right that the very rich and very poor have polarized the nation. The middle-class is torn between supporting politicians that favor the rich or politicians that favor entitlements such as Social Security.
October 23rd, 2011 at 6:06 pm
Why is it that the debate on the economic condition of America and its debt never seems to include a discussion of the astronomical cost of the wars America continues to fight? Afghanistan costs about $2 billion a week and Iraq close to $1 billion a day. In all of history, every great civilization has fallen by trying to be the world’s policeman, Rome, England, France, and now the U.S.A. It’s time to focus on the home front and get out of places where there are 1000 years of hate being created.
November 25th, 2011 at 12:49 am
Excellent point, Tim!
The wars serve three purposes:
Keep us mobilized in the Middle East, where our energy interests lie. This is what we promised the world we would do via the Carter Doctrine;
Provide continued support to the military-industrial complex;
Provide employment opportunities to replace all those manufacturing jobs we threw away.
I find all of these reasons objectionable, and an example of a country whose ability to creatively lead is totally bankrupt or corrupted.
May 26th, 2012 at 12:44 am
Will put a link on your Facebook account in Poland and I strongly commend to your blog: Some Disturbing Thoughts About 2012 | Evolution Shift – David Houle, Futurist, Disintermediation, Future Trends, Future of Energy. And I have many friends who are interested in medicine, I’m a doctor. I cordially greet and welcome to the blog in our country.