The Good News about High Gasoline Prices
May 18th, 2007
It was reported yesterday that Americans are driving less, in large part due to the high price of gasoline. For the first time since 1981 the average American motorist is driving less. After 25 years of steady increases, the growth in total miles driven has leveled off in the last 18 months. This is in spite of the fact that there have been an additional 1 million drivers on the highways since 2005. While the population and workforce of the country has expanded by more than 1 percent, the total amount of driving has increased only 0.3 percent.
The interesting correlation between today and 1981 is that it was in that year that the price of gasoline reached its highest price when adjusted for inflation. The price reached an inflation adjusted price of $3.22 in 2007 dollars. That compares to the $3.11 national average price of yesterday. As regular readers of this column know, in January, I predicted record gasoline prices this year, so today’s high prices are no surprise. There is no doubt in my mind that between now and Labor Day, we will see prices continue to go up, mostly likely exceeding a $3.50 per gallon national average.
There are other reasons that Americans are driving less. The Federal Highway Administration says that 7 in 10 Americans now say they are combining trips and taking other steps to cut down on driving. In 2006 more people took public transportation than at any time in the last 49 years. Demographic data shows that many people are driving less due to the population growth in the downtowns of American cities. Though not reported, I suggest to you that the fact that we have recently crossed the 50% penetration of U.S. households that have high speed Internet access is also a factor. High speed connections allow people to telecommute more, to make more on-line purchases and to use on-line map services to find the most direct driving routes to desired destinations.
This is all good news. If it takes high prices for us to conserve, then so be it. Much more importantly, consistently high gasoline prices allow innovation and development of alternative fuel sources. Initially, new types of ways to power vehicles will be expensive, and therefore high gasoline prices allow these new alternative ways to power transportation to be competitive. After the high gasoline prices of1981, the price collapsed to lows that lasted until this century.
It is no coincidence that higher priced alternative energy sources were not developed as they had no ability to compete economically.It could be easily argued that a Federal gasoline tax of $.50 -1.00 per gallon would be a very good thing, if managed properly. It would increase conservation and the revenues could go toward the development of alternative fuels and vehicles that run on them. Alternatively, the revenues could go into the Social Security system, so that every gallon of gasoline we buy helps to fund the long term financial security of our citizens. This tax would generate tens of millions of dollars a day. It would also provide further economic incentives to purchase cars that have high MPG ratings, which would further conserve energy and of course would help to lower CO2 emissions. Now that is a tax that makes sense.
To adapt a phrase about another addiction: thank you for not driving.
May 18th, 2007 at 9:50 am
David—-I have been involved with the “Jimmy Carter Synfuel Law” which recently expired. It seems that IRS has paid out billions of dollars of after tax –tax credits– for technology that did not appreciably change our energy supply. The program gave these tax credits on coal treated with various chemicals so as to produce a chemical change in composition. This chemical change became the marking post for qualification as “synfuel”, which in turn permitted the producer to qualify for incredibly lucrative tax credits. The “chemical change” , however, did not change our energy supply, but merely created an artificial standard for passing IRS qualitifications. Some have called this technology “spray and pray”, meaning you spray coal or waste coal and hope that it produces a chemical change, as opposed to a more efficient fuel, which will then qualify for huge tax credits. So, my point is that we have to be very careful with our use of taxes as a mechanism for changing the present dynamic. And why is it then, that we don’t incentivize the Prius’s of the world—-to the point where most new car buyers, actively choose to drive a 60 mile per gallon car over a 15 mile per gallon car. I see that you have prior posts related to this, and will go back and read them. Best Wishes, Irv
May 19th, 2007 at 4:02 pm
Could you please post your sources for the statistics?
May 20th, 2007 at 11:23 am
The driving statistics are from the Federal Highway Administration. The statistic concerning mass transportation are from the Department of Transportation
May 29th, 2007 at 10:35 pm
Hey David, I like reading this blog, being a big driver at my age 17. Gas prices are high now, but it will hit me in a couple of years harder, when I have to pay for gas, along with just living and supporting myself. That will make me feel more passionate about taking action, like you stated in your blog. I like the statistics you posted and your blog explains a lot. Thanks David. I now understand the good news about high gasoline prices.