A Media Milestone
February 7th, 2007
In my post on predictions for 2007, I made a specific prediction that the current Internet 2.0 boom would continue and that eyeballs, dollars and influence would migrate from old media to the Internet. Now this isn’t crystal ball stuff. Media and advertising professionals live this reality every day. Just look at your own life. How much more time do you spend on-line that you did 10, 5 or even 2 years ago? The debate is around how fast and how much, not if or when.
I read a news item the other day that was, for me, a historically and hugely symbolic underscoring of this flow of power to the Internet. The world’s oldest newspaper announced that it was ceasing publication on paper and would be only available on-line.
The Swedish newspaper PoIT — which stands for Post och Inrikes Tidningar — is the world’s oldest newspaper still in publication. It has been continuously published since 1645. 1645! That is just 90 years after Gutenberg printed his first bible. The paper was founded by the Swedish Queen Christina and her chancellor during the Thirty Years War.
The Editor, and only employee of PoIT, Roland Haegglund, was quoted as saying “The change in format is, of course a major departure for some, possibly a little sad, but is also a natural stepâ€. Evidently PoIT, had long ago ceased to be a real newspaper, and had become an announcement vehicle for financial. legal and corporate institutions. When it published its final print version on December 29, it had less than 2,000 subscribers. All that being true, it is still a hugely symbolic occurrence that the oldest newspaper on Earth describes going to on-line only as ‘a natural step’.
The world will go on, major newspapers will continue to both publish and decline in readership and the Internet will continue to experience explosive growth. No one outside Sweden will be materially affected by this event. Yet, though inconsequential this decision by PoIT may be, in the overarching timeline of media, it is a true signpost event. A door has closed, as another one swings wide open.
February 8th, 2007 at 2:35 pm
wow. I think it will still make time for papers with large readership. But 2,000 subscribers isn’t worth the paper it is printed on.
To be honest, I cannot remember the last time I bought or help a paper newspaper.
February 9th, 2007 at 11:06 am
What about Net-Neutrality? Do your futurist predictions take into account that the big media mogles and service providers might shut down, regulate, and charge for user content?
Could it steer us away from our bright future into a “content-served to you” format like the television?
I’m interested in your thoughts on this.
February 9th, 2007 at 8:38 pm
Everyday-
My strong sense is that the Net will remain neutral. If all the gatekeepers and providers decided to conspire to regulate, control and limit what we can access, someone will find a way around it. The Internet is the greatest agent of disintermediation since the printing press. Books diseminated knowledge controlled by the church and the aristocracy. Sure, bad books were written, evil regimes or fearful religions burned books but those were isolated incidents in the general dissemination of knowledge through the printed word. If Google or Yahoo, or the cable moguls or anyone tried to control, then someone would do an end around and create a competitive advantage by being open.
I do think what will happen is that lazy people- the couch potatoes of the internet will set up their browsers and favorites and use pull technology to view what they like. That’s fine. Others will always be looking for the next cool site or experience, and that’s cool too. It will remain open, as it is impossible to fully control. That is why it is so powerful.
David
February 21st, 2007 at 7:17 pm
Don’t be too quick to predict the demise of printed newspapers. What will the world wrap fish in? One day the fellow that never bought a newspaper will back off the dynamic fast paced screen and try something new, the daily paper. It will still be around because its unique user friendliness and also its addictive qualities, and its repose, and finally its distinctive advertising power will give it entrepeneurial immortality..something already shaping up in the bidding wars for newspapers on the block. GR
February 21st, 2007 at 8:08 pm
George-
I absolutely agree that newspapers will survive for decades. When interviewed a year ago about the future of newspapers, I said three things:
1. the big ‘national brand’ papers such as WSJ, USAToday and the NYTimes, would continue to thrive.
2. the small town newspapers would also thrive as they cover local events no other medium does, and
3. The large and mid-sized urban papers would have to migrate on-line to keep customers. These are the papers that are declining in value and around which there have been many corporate write-downs recently.
By the way, the combination of newsprint ink and mercury is not a healthy eating combo!
David