Forecast for 2009 Part One The Transition is Underway
January 6th, 2009
This is the third year I have provided readers with a forecast for the year ahead. This forecast will be spread over several columns.. This first column frames where we are in a large historical context and the trends and forces that are reshaping the world as we enter this New Year.
The general feeling in the U.S. and around the world is relief that 2008 is over and uncertainty about 2009 and what lies ahead. These two years are part of a 5-7 year transition period between two ages. Humanity is moving from the Information Age to the Shift Age.
Whenever a transition such as this occurs, there is much disruption as existing structures, systems and processes give way to new ones. A good example of this is the decade of the 1970s, which in hindsight was the decade when the Information Age began and was therefore a decade long transition from the Industrial Age to the Information Age. Things started to happen economically that hadn’t happened before. The phrase stagflation was coined to describe the unprecedented confluence of high unemployment, high inflation and rapid increases in the cost of energy. It was a decade when many major indices went sideways and sometimes up looked like down and down looked like up. Things seemed to be disassembling. Sound familiar? In the 1970s New York almost went bankrupt. In 2006-2008 the activities of New York’s Wall Street created bankruptcies globally.
This transition between the Information Age and the Shift Age began in 2006 and will continue through 2010-12. Those of you who are regular readers of this column, viewers of my YouTube channel or have read my book “The Shift Age” know that one of the forces of the Shift Age is the Flow to Global. The Shift Age is the global stage of human evolution. We are all moving to a new unprecedented global integration, reorganization and consciousness. The new developing human reality is global. This reality of global far surpasses the concept of economic globalization and the global economy.
That said history shows us that usually economics leads the way in human endeavor, economic motivations and forces happen first, followed by culture and politics. What is now universally accepted about the financial meltdown of 2008? That it was a global financial meltdown. The financial collapse has opened all our eyes to the reality that finance in practically every aspect is now global. The concept of an isolated nation state economy is somewhat anachronistic in an age when money is electronic and therefore flows instantaneously around the world.
So the way to view the financial collapse and global economic meltdown is that it is part of the transition from one age to another. The economic pain will continue for two more years as we move from the old economic landscape to the new one. Any new order or new organization that takes hold will cause disruption and pain to the old and existing orders. The pain is particularly acute as reflections on past disruptions – is this like the Great Depression, is this like the recession of the early 1980s – can only give partial guidance as each new Age is ultimately unique and new.
There are four words that keep coming back to me as I view the landscape of what lies ahead in 2009 and beyond. They are contraction, cleansing, reorganization and transformation. It is these four words to keep in mind as you read the forecasts here and look around you
Contraction in the economic sector as the mindless commitment to endless economic growth fueled by credit and debt is now shown to be hollow, unrealistic and unsustainable.
Cleansing in the economic sector and elsewhere as old models, ways of doing business, values and ways to view the world are scrubbed away and purged from what will be our future.
Reorganization of almost everything that is part of society and how humanity operates within society. This reorganization will happen to economic institutions, political and philosophical allegiances, geopolitical alliances, communications; all to a new global order that is getting ever more electronically connected.
Finally, transformation of almost everything into new ways of seeing, doing, understanding and living. All of this will ultimately move us into new transformative realms of consciousness and understanding. That will take a decade, but the process is underway and the transition to it is what 2009 will be about.
This then is the context for the next few columns which will make specific forecasts for 2009 and beyond.
January 7th, 2009 at 6:33 pm
Great thinking. I hope that your timing of 2010-12 is in the ball park. Business and marketers are now struggling to define who the winners and losers will be in this transformation or shift, both of which are better words than recovery..since we can not return to what was, given technology and rearrangment of societies on our globe. The big unaswered question is if you had a choice to be born in 2012 or 1970 or 1950 which birthday would you choose?
January 8th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
David, as always, is thought provoking and sets the stage for focusing our energies and intellect on the future. Understanding and collective consciousness, shaped by a society, is always a series of successive approximations. History is only written in retrospect and is simply someone’s observation and documentation, scientific fact is only developed by someone’s interpretation of a data set, journalistic description of the present way always relies on viewpoint and perspective. As we collectively attempt to understand the near present and near future, having some sort of intellectual framework in which to set the parameters for that future thinking is absolutely necessary.
Whether David is right or wrong about his immediate projections, that will only be determined through historical retrospective analysis. What is incredibly important here in David’s Post is that he has given us a powerful framework on which to shape our own thinking about the future. Without that framework our thoughtful analysis would have a tendency to drift and be out of focus. I appreciate David’s insightful framing of the discussion and look forward to his Posts and future projections. These are exciting times.
January 8th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
George-
Great comment! I am not sure how to answer the question. As someone born around 1950, the 1970 date means that I would be younger. The 2012 date means much more in terms of potential or possibility. On the positive it might me that I might get a chance to live to be at least 125 and live in a new golden age of humanity. If humanity screws up it might mean that I might not make it to 50.
I agree that recovery is a poor word to use.
David
January 8th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Henry-
thanks for the comment and the flattery.There is so much fear in the world that I do feel it is my responsibility as a futurist to provide a large context for what is really going on today.
Humanity is on the threshold of either great magnificent evolutionary steps or something much worse. To see the big picture is a way to increase the possibility of the former.
Thanks!
David
January 8th, 2009 at 7:15 pm
The United States of America and many other countries should stop taxing interest from savings accounts, dividends, capital gains, and estates. Middle class people, union members, and government employees who have mutual funds would benefit from capital gains and dividends not being taxed. Wealthy people and others may be more likely to donate to homeless shelters, soup kitchens, food pantries, and other places. Individuals and businesses would be more likely to invest in poor areas. Businesses would have an easier time obtaining loans and investments for hiring workers, training workers, research and development, and plant and equipment. If the estate tax is eliminated, a lot more innovation may take place that may lead to many problems being solved, many jobs being created, and more revenues obtained from income taxes and sales taxes. The estate tax punishes hard work, creativity, savings, and investments. If economies grow a lot, governments may obtain a lot more money from sales taxes and income taxes. Savings and investments are how jobs and economic growth take place over time. Are the results immediate? No
Unions (union members) need to buy the majority of stock in many startups and small companies in many different countries and make the decisions as well as benefit from capital gains and dividends. This may do a lot to increase wage rates in many developing countries over time. This may help get many better trade agreements adopted.
Many governments need to significantly increase the power of shareholders. Shareholders need to be better able to reduce executive pay and eliminate bonuses. Shareholders need to be better able to increase their dividends. Shareholders need to be better able to get back executive pay and benefits already paid out when they were not based on accurate numbers. Shareholders need to be better able to fire executives and boards of directors.
Many governments and businesses need to work together a lot better to figure out ways to make things while polluting our water, our air, and our land less. Many governments and businesses need to work together to figure out ways to deal with existing trash and future trash.
Many governments and businesses need to think of many different ways to increase the amount of drinking water we have.
Congress should have learned from the savings and loans crisis that regulation is important. Congress should have required down payments on homes and fixed rate mortgages. Allowing mortgage backed securities to be sold based on no money down mortgages was nuts.
Many countries may want to back their currencies with gold, silver, and many other commodities.
The less underground an economy is the more revenues that governments may be able to obtain from sales taxes and income taxes. Governments need to legalize, regulate, and tax the sale of marijuana, heroin, and cocaine for people who are at least 18 years old to reduce the harm caused by violent criminal gangs. If the United States of America and Mexico legalize, regulate, and tax the sale of marijuana, heroin, and cocaine for people who are at least 18 years old, they are likely to spend less money fighting violent drug gangs. If Mexico is able to spend less money fighting drug gangs, it may be able to spend more money on its economy. If Mexico’s economy grows a lot, fewer illegal immigrants may come to the United States of America, many illegal immigrants may leave the United States of America, and many more Mexicans may be able to buy products and services from the United States of America. Most non violent drug offenders should be released from prison. If state governments are able to spend less money dealing with violent crime, illegal immigrants who are a major expense for them, and non violent drug offenders, they may be able to reduce there sales taxes.
Governments should legalize prostitution for people who are at least 18 years old to reduce sex slavery and rapes.
I hope many governments and businesses will fund free education websites that will have top teachers and top students from many countries teaching k-12 subjects, college subjects, and graduate school subjects via video, audio, notes, and other things. Teachers and students could be compensated. Online tutoring could take place so that you could have a student in Ireland tutoring a student in South Africa. You could have a teacher in France teaching a class in Kansas.
I hope many governments and businesses will help fund and run cooperative education programs in junior high schools, high schools, colleges, and graduate schools similar to what Northeastern University has. I hope many more students will be able to work in foreign countries.
I post comments after Matthew Leiphon’s “STATE BUDGET WOES” at http://www.newgeography.com/content/00497-state-budget-woes
I post comments after ILIE MITARU’s “CURRENT POLICY OVERLOOKS THE NEW HOMELESS” at http://www.newgeography.com/content/00507-current-policy-overlooks-new-homeless
I discuss ideas that may help Africa on my website http://www.myspace.com/kennethstremsky
The survival of the human race may someday depend on what takes place in Africa.
I graduated from the University of New Hampshire in 1992 with a BA Degree in Political Science and a minor in Economics.
I ran for United States Senate in 2002.