GM, Ford and Chrysler represent to a large degree the Industrial Age legacy of manufacturing in the U.S.  “What was good for General Motors was good for the United States” was, for decades in the 20th century a very true statement.  The manufacturing might of America post WWII was an economic miracle and the apotheosis of the Industrial Age.  Supported by the explosive growth of television and the American advertising business, the consumer market of wondrous new goods exploded.  The Big Three auto companies rode this wave to unprecedented success.

Every year, there were the exciting new model introductions of all the auto makes in the Fall.  Families became conditioned to buying new cars every few years just to keep up with the styling - and their neighbors..  Planned obsolescence was part of the business plan of the U.S. auto industry.  The oil embargo of 1973-74 was a major hiccup and it provided a market opportunity for Japanese auto makers to enter the market with small cars that provided higher MPG than those provided by the Big Three.  Once the price of oil collapsed after the Iranian revolution the next two decades of cheap oil allowed the Big Three to manufacture ever bigger SUVs and trucks which they sold the American public with their powerful marketing efforts.

The problem was that the leadership of the Big Three never adjusted to the post-9/11 world.  Oil has increased in price by 1400% since 1998 and 700% since 2001, yet the Detroit auto makers continued …

The fact that you know what I mean when I write the two words “Big Three” points to the power of Detroit and U.S. automotive marketing in the last half of the 20th century. The fact that they are no longer the big three in terms of sales in the U.S. points to the reality of the 21st century.

This year Toyota will finally top GM in sales in the U.S. In 2005 GM’s market share was twice that of Toyota’s. Think Prius and fuel economy. GM recently announced the closing of four manufacturing plants in North America and Mexico. Guess what they made there? Trucks and SUVs. Think $4 and soon $5 gallon gasoline. Since 1991, the Ford F-150 pick-up truck was the number one selling vehicle every year in the U.S. Not this year. 2007 will be the last year that a pick up truck will ever be the best selling vehicle in the country. Chrysler, while still getting plenty of style points for their vehicles, has been sold twice and, like Ford and GM is losing billions of dollars. Wall Street is downgrading Big Three stocks. The early 20th century phrase: “What is good for General Motors is good for America” is no longer operative because GM lost their view on what was good for America.

Now, long time readers of this column know that I have written positively about GM in past columns. …

The two trend lines are the decline in gasoline consumption and the decline in miles driven.  These two are obviously connected and are obviously caused by the price of oil.  For the first time in close to 30 years, we have something to be proud of when it comes to our driving behavior.

Two different reports last week documented this profound turnaround.  A report by the Cambridge Energy Research Associates documented that, should recent behavior continue, gasoline demand will likely decline in 2008 for the first time in 17 years. Over the course of the last 25 years gasoline demand in the U.S. increased by 40% due to the popularity of SUVs, minivans, increasing number of vehicles per household and the ever lengthening distance of driving commutes. All subsidized by cheap oil. This growth slowed significantly in the last two years and then in the first quarter of 2008, actually dropped 1.3 percent compared to the first quarter of 2007.  While this percentage drop is slight, this observer believes it will be a historic turning point that, in just a few years will be seen as the turning point from the constant increase in gasoline consumption to the constant decrease that will the reality from now on.

The second report, from the Transportation Department stated that in the month of April, Americans drove 1.8 percent fewer miles that the same month a year ago.  This was the sixth consecutive month of driving decline.  This trend, also a reaction to the price of …

This will be the first of several columns on the state of transportation in the U.S. Regular readers of this column know that for years I have predicted the current high price of oil, the sales collapse of the truck and SUV markets and the need for electric cars. In addition it has been stated here that the future of U.S. transportation must include high speed trains, and a better integration of airplane, train and local mass transit. Finally it should start being clear to anyone paying attention [still too few of the population] that the now permanent high price – relative to prices since the mid 1980s - of gasoline will have a profound effect on behavior and our perceptions of where to live and work and how to live. Our culture, our society, our economy and the landscape of this country are about ready to undergo significant and massive change.

The recent news that SUV and pick up truck sales had plummeted compared to last year is worthy of comment. The obvious reason is the price of gasoline. As I wrote here recently, $4 a gallon gas is finally inflicting enough pain to change behavior. All the cars that showed the greatest sales growth year to year were small cars that get good gas mileage. For the first time in 17 years, a car, rather than a truck was the best selling vehicle. It is about time.

Decades ago trucks used to be …