This is the third year I have provided readers with a forecast for the year ahead.  This forecast will be spread over several columns..  This first column frames where we are in a large historical context and the trends and forces that are reshaping the world as we enter this New Year.

The general feeling in the U.S. and around the world is relief that 2008 is over and uncertainty about 2009 and what lies ahead.  These two years are part of a 5-7 year transition period between two ages.  Humanity is moving from the Information Age to the Shift Age.

Whenever a transition such as this occurs, there is much disruption as existing structures, systems and processes give way to new ones.  A good example of this is the decade of the 1970s, which in hindsight was the decade when the Information Age began and was therefore a decade long transition from the Industrial Age to the Information Age.  Things started to happen economically that hadn’t happened before.  The …

The year 2008 will obviously go down as one of the most eventful years in recent history.  It was the year that Barack Obama was elected President of the United States.  It was the year that the Internet replaced print and TV as the driving force in a presidential election. It was the beginning of the end of 15 years of divisive cultural politics in America.

2008 was the year of the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression.  This collapse was the first one since the beginning of the new global economy and thus showed how humanity and all of its nation states are financially interconnected in a historically unprecedented way.  This global financial collapse is historically significant for several reasons.  First it did show that money and finance knows no national boundaries, and that nation states can no longer individually deal with major financial crises.  Second it is the start of the process to cleanse the global and particularly U.S economy from over leveraged, debt oriented mindless …

China is nothing less than a historical phenomenon. In just 30 years the country has moved from being a closed, communist country with a rural economy to one of the most economically powerful countries of the world.  It is the first country in history to move from the Agricultural Age to the Industrial Age to the Information Age and now to the Shift Age in 30 years.  The U.S took 200 years to do this.  This must always be kept in mind when looking at China.

It would be impossible to move this rapidly without significant problems, disruptions and upheavals.  These must be expected to occur when such change occurs with such lightening speed, historically speaking.  I have written several times about China and the problems they have.   Back in August of this year, when the Beijing Olympics was a topic of conversation, I forecast that, with the Olympics over, major problems would emerge in China for the next year or two. [This prediction and …

This is not a column about Cole Porter, the great Broadway composer who wrote the wonderful song “Night and Day”.  This column is about climate change and the urgent need for humanity to dramatically alter its’ energy equation.

At a recent global climate change summit in Poland, John Kerry, the ranking U.S. representative told the world community that the difference  on the issue of climate change between the incoming Obama administration and the soon to be history Bush administration will be like “night and day”.  He emphasized the commitment that Obama will have for facing global warming, creating alternative and renewable energy businesses and working closing with nations of the world in this area.  He compared that to the horrendous, head in the sand, petroleum loyal and anti science Bush administration and promised the world that America is ready to again join the rest of the world in facing these key issues.

There is no doubt that Kerry’s words will be proven to be true.  It is hard to imagine …